LINCOLN—Prediction markets largely reflected Nebraska’s 2026 midterm election results, with tens of millions of dollars wagered, including $19 million on the U.S. Senate race. However, markets incorrectly anticipated passage of the state’s online sports betting measures, which voters rejected despite a roughly 70% predicted chance of approval. Experts questioned the transparency and added value of prediction markets compared to traditional polling, particularly given the financial risks to participants. Kalshi defended its platform, emphasizing that prediction markets provide continuously updated forecasts intended to complement polling.

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